It is interesting to see local town responses to the brewing deportation effort widely expected from the Trump administration.  It is a balancing act. Overall Larry Cantwell’s response (see letter below) is to be commended.  I am proud of our local government.  However, beware of the fine print. I expect that the definition  of “serious criminal charges” will be a key point. Perhaps local police chiefs will have much discretion on how to enforce vague dirrectives. Many local political leaders are up for election in November 2017! Keep tabs now and VOTE even if it is an off-off election.

Bannon has a coherent worldview, which is a huge advantage when all is chaos. It’s interesting how many of Bannon’s rivals have woken up with knives in their backs. Michael Flynn is gone. Reince Priebus has been unmanned by a thousand White House leaks. Rex Tillerson had the potential to be an effective secretary of state, but Bannon neutered him last week by denying him the ability to even select his own deputy.

In an administration in which “promoted beyond his capacity” takes on new meaning, Bannon looms. With each passing day, Trump talks more like Bannon without the background reading.

Third, we are about to enter a decentralized world. For the past 70 years most nations have instinctively looked to the U.S. for leadership, either to follow or oppose. But in capitals around the world, intelligence agencies are drafting memos with advice on how to play Donald Trump.

The first conclusion is obvious. This administration is more like a medieval monarchy than a modern nation-state. It’s more “The Madness of King George” than “The Missiles of October.” The key currency is not power, it’s flattery.

The corollary is that Trump is ripe to be played. Give the boy a lollipop and he won’t notice if you steal his lunch. The Japanese gave Trump a new jobs announcement he could take to the Midwest, and in return they got presidential attention and coddling that other governments would have died for.

If you want to roll the Trump administration, you’ve got to get in line. The Israelis got a possible one-state solution. The Chinese got Trump to flip-flop on the “One China” policy. The Europeans got him to do a 180 on undoing the Iran nuclear deal.

Vladimir Putin was born for a moment such as this. He is always pushing the envelope. After gifting Team Trump with a little campaign help, the Russian state media has suddenly turned on Trump and Russian planes are buzzing U.S. ships. The bear is going to grab what it can.

We’re about to enter a moment in which U.S. economic and military might is strong but U.S. political might is weak. Imagine the Roman Empire governed by Monaco.

That’s scary. The only saving thought is this: The human imagination is vast, but it is not nearly vast enough to encompass the infinitely multitudinous ways Donald Trump can find to get himself disgraced.”

See also a prior blog post by a historian, in which Trump is likened to Kaiser Wilhelm II.

Erwin Stiebel was a German Jew who fought WWI for Germany. He was born in Fulda and believed that German civilization (including literature and the arts) were the pinnacle of human civilization. However, in the 1920s anti-Semitism and the fascist movement drove him to emigrate to neighboring Switzerland where he and his family survived WWII. Like some people today, he needed to channel his despair and emotions into a positive cause. He bought some land in Israel in the 1930s and donated it to a nascent Zionist organization for Jewish children orphaned by the wars. In 1951 this became Kibutz Kiriath Yearim, which still exists today. My brother recently discovered a fundraising letter from Jan. 17^th 1947, which demonstrates renewed efforts to fund the project, called “Jugendalijah”. It had been stifled during WWII.

Out of despair, some extraordinary activist projects can be born. Perhaps this is an example for many of us in present times.

David Posnett MD, East Hampton, NY 11937

Driving Down the Path of Suboptimal Solutions Without Brakes

The author, Rajeev Pillay, is Founder and General Partner of Abacus International Management. He has worked on institutional and governance reforms in countries going through economic and political transition. Rajeev Pillay is married to an Israeli, and has traveled repeatedly to Israel over the past 35 years.  His family had close connections to the Weizmann Institute, a world renown science center.

The construction of new settlements has moved into high gear all over the West Bank. The only country that can stop the bulldozer is the U.S., but while he has retreated somewhat from his earlier stance of openly supporting the expansion, it certainly does not look as though President Trump understands the issue and its implications for the U.S. well enough to do anything about it.

The “One State Solution” is the only likely outcome at this point. The Obama administration’s stand in the Security Council of the UN was a last ditch, futile attempt to at least be heard on the issue after at least 2 years of intensive efforts by Kerry to talk Israel off the ledge. The One State Solution is pretty much accepted within Israel by the majority of the population and the plethora of right wing and religious parties that carry the most weight in the country’s politics. The voices of the left and even Tzipi Livni who has gone through numerous political incarnations and alliances since she ran against Netanyahu on a two state platform and lost, have been long drowned out. Even minorities within the state of Israel (Armenians, Greeks, Italians and Arab Israelis) are expecting a single state.

What are the likely consequences of a One-State Solution?

• Uprising and increased instability in Jordan and Egypt, that are both allies of the U.S.  and have recognized Israel fully and have standing peace agreements and relatively close ties with Israel. Jordan is already a tinderbox. It houses over 2 million Iraqi and Syrian refugees in a total population of 9.8 million. These 2 million are not housed in refugee camps, but are in among the population of Jordan, receive the same benefits as the general population and compete for jobs against them in an environment in which unemployment is already very high. Some 60 per cent of the remainder of the population is Palestinian. If Jordan becomes unstable, the problems in neighboring Syria will no doubt spillover (Northern Jordan is already a no-go area for many foreigners. The famous Al Qaeda leader Zarkawi killed in Iraq was originally from Zarka in Northern Jordan). Egypt has an even more repressive government than Jordan, but in addition to the Islamic insurgency in the Sinai, at the last election during the “revolution” before General Sisi stepped in, 60 per cent of the population voted for the Muslim Brotherhood and another 20 per cent voted for Salafi fundamentalists. This will become a rallying cry for them and will make Sisi’s life very difficult indeed. Egypt’s population is, by conservative estimates, about 85 million and as such has an outsize influence in the Arab world.

• A one state solution will skew the demographics dramatically in Israel itself. So much so that the Arab Israelis are actually looking forward to a single state solution as they believe that they will be the majority and will be in charge! I am not of a similar mind. The Israeli government will never allow this to happen, and so in my view they probably have two possible solutions – neither of which are particularly democratic. One is to create the equivalent of the former South African regime’s “Bantustans” where Palestinians are placed and treated as entirely separate and autonomous, but starved for revenue, resources and access to trade and are not given the vote in Israel. The second is to expel Palestinians whose land they expropriate. This is solution long favored by several Israeli politicians on the right including Avigdor Lieberman who is now Minister of Defense in Netanyahu’s government. This expulsion presumably could be to neighboring countries, or it could be to Gaza, which I am pretty sure is to be a Bantustan of sorts because it is such a hornets’ nest. Either way, Israel will no longer be a liberal democracy in the true sense of the term.

• If the Trump administration does not stand up for two states, the US’s role as a mediator for peace will be dealt a final, fatal blow and its standing in the Arab world will be severely affected.

The recognition of Jerusalem as the capital, something that Trump appears to have backed off a bit, will be the icing on the cake for Israel, but will inflame an even wider array of Arab countries (Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries included) because of its religious significance.

I should mention that there is some sort of hope among Israeli policy makers that an anti-Iranian alliance can be struck up between Israel and leaders of countries in the “Sunni crescent” (Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar being the most important among them). My own opinion is that this is delusional. While these countries no doubt have covert relations with Israel, a single state and the an official recognition of Jerusalem by the U.S. as the capital of Israel will leave these countries with no option but to strongly oppose Israel if only to ensure their own domestic stability.

Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting the US yet again and will not doubt place pressure on President Trump to make good on his campaign promises. Netanyahu is up for election and assuming that he survives accusations of corruption and ongoing investigations into him and his wife, is likely to win with a small majority. He will be asked to form a government by the President of Israel and will no doubt have to horse trade with right and extreme-right wing and religious parties to form a coalition. There is no real hope of a softening of Israel’s position.

Congressman Lee Zeldin, who represents Suffolk County is making a visit to Israel as every Congressman from New York State worth her or his salt is supposed to do. I do not expect a great deal from him except for him to pledge to back the Israeli government’s policies in every way that he can. It is important for him domestically — especially as a politician from New York. He is also co-chair of the House Republican Israel Caucus, so his politics are pretty obvious. Furthermore, the settlements are financed by remittances from the diaspora Jewish Community (cost of constructing houses, tax breaks, education, health and other personal subsidies such as cash to buy cars, etc. for new settlers on the West Bank). Most of this money comes from the two coasts of the U.S. (some $11.5 billion last year) and Zeldin must be well aware of the fact and its importance to his domestic politics.

I for one, am fully resigned to the emergence of a single state in the coming 4 years as the Trump Administration will not serve as an obstacle. The Obama Administration, which otherwise was the best friend that Israel could have had in terms of military and humanitarian support, was excoriated as an enemy of Israel just because it sought to speak truth to power and warn Israel of the negative outcomes of the current policy.

Given the reality today, we probably have no option but to go to Plan-B and prepare to deal with negative outcomes in an already volatile and chaotic Middle East.

WHAT THE HECK IS THE JOHNSON AMENDMENT ANYWAY AND WHY SHOULD WE CARE?
By MARY MCKENNA

The Johnson Amendment was proposed by and named after then Senator Lyndon B. Johnson of Texas. It is not an amendment to the Constitution as some may think but an amendment to the tax code. President Eisenhower signed the tax bill into law in Aug 1954 prohibiting all 501(c)(3) non-profit organizations, not just religious organizations, from endorsing or opposing political candidates. If found in violation by the IRS, they risk losing their tax exempt status.

Was Johnson trying to address a constitutional issue related to separation of church and state? Not so said James D. Davidson of Perdue University in his 1998 Review of Religious Research. As Davidson and others have argued Johnson feared that right-wing groups, parading as charities, would attack his reelection campaign.

Perhaps Johnson’s reasons were self-serving at the time however; this provision in the tax code has become the teeth enforcing our 1st Amendment principle of separation of church and state.

Maybe not shark teeth but a deterrent none the less. As Liz Hayes explains in her February 2017 article in Church & State, the Johnson amendment does not gag religious leaders. As private citizens they can endorse candidates and even speak for or against politicized issues. What the Johnson Amendment does do is prevent non-profit entities from endorsing or opposing specific candidates. They can’t direct their tax deductible donations toward a candidate. In other words, they can’t take up collections for or run an ad for a candidate paid for with their donations.

501(c)(3) organizations are the most common type of nonprofit organization in the United States, ranging from charitable foundations to universities and churches. Religious groups have been the most vocal opponents of the Johnson Amendment and they have been fighting for years for its repeal.

Since 2001, Rep. Walker B. Jones Jr, [R-NC-3] has introduced bills to repeal the Johnson Amendment. He introduced bill H.R. 153 in 2015: To restore the Free Speech and First Amendment rights of churches and exempt organizations by repealing the 1954 Johnson Amendment . No further action was taken by the House on this bill. As with all but one of his other similar bills, after referral to House Ways and Means Committee, it was left to expire with the end of the last session of Congress.

However, Rep. Jones wasted no time in re-introducing a similar bill, H.R. 172 on January 3, 2017 the first day of the 115th session of Congress. As stated, the bill Amends the Internal Revenue Code to repeal the prohibition against churches and other tax-exempt organizations participating in political campaigns or supporting or opposing candidates for public office.

Sadly, for those of us who believe that the Johnson Amendment deterred political campaigning from the pulpit, the death of H.R 172 may not follow the life cycle of its predecessors. The winds have changed. The Republican Party’s 2016 platform included a statement urging the repeal of the amendment, then candidate Trump made promises to repeal it and President Trump speaking at the National Prayer Breakfast said “I will get rid of and totally destroy the Johnson Amendment and allow our representatives of faith to speak freely and without fear of retribution.”

Actually, what retribution there has been has also been waning. With budget cuts over the last few years, the agency has scarce resources for enforcement of the Internal Revenue Code. According to Center on Budget and Policy Priorities April 4, 2016 report, Since regaining a majority in the 2010 elections, House Republicans have targeted the IRS for sharp cuts

Why do we care? Money and Power. Emma Greene, in the August 2016 issue of The Atlantic suggests that repealing the Johnson Amendment could mean a lot more money possibly flowing into politics via donations to churches and other religious organizations. That could mean religious groups would become much more powerful political forces in American politics—and it would almost certainly tee up future court battles around politicized religious issues, i.e. marriage equality, LGBTQ and reproductive rights.

For those of us who would like to see less religious influence in our politics, the introduction of H.R. 172 is a call to action, to resist all actions which would degrade our 1st Amendment principal of separation of church and state. In a recent Newsday opinion piece Rev. Barry W. Lynn of Americans United reminded us that when religion and government are combined, there’s no true freedom of conscience.

What to do?

1. Follow the progress of H.R 172. Log onto Congress.gov. Create an account. Enter H.R. 172 in the search box. Check that you want to follow this bill. Get familiar with Congress.gov. Let’s see what else is going on.

2. Contact your representatives. I know everyone keeps saying that, but we can’t let up. Persist! Call, email, snail mail:
Congressman Lee Zeldin 1st District New York

https://zeldin.house.gov/contact/email

Washington DC Office:

1517 Longworth House Office Building

Washington, DC 20515

(202) 225-3826

East End Office:

30 West Main Street

Suite 201

Riverhead, NY 11901.

631) 209-4235

3. Think about signing this petition from Americans United for Separation of Church and State (AU) to urge the IRS to more aggressively enforce the Johnson Amendment: http://projectfairplay.squarespace.com/petition

The Women’s March in DC

http://sagharborexpress.com/point-view-pussyhat-project/

Here’s a link to my essay about the Women’s March that was published in The Sag Harbor Express.  Despite everything that has been happening since the march, I think it still provides a relevant commentary on what we are rallying for and against and in the importance of owning symbolism in our resistance.

Helen Atkinson-Barnes

Hopper App Research has posted weekly flight searches to the US by country of origin and compared pre- versus post-inauguration travel searches.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16DYwfUZSIB89KpM9n7O9LUE-Oj-tPdhtSmbgpOeaPuY/pubhtml#

Guess which travellers are rethinking their visit to the USA?  Obviously, travel plans from the infamous list of banned countries are down.  But travellers from most other countries are down too:

Banned are Libya, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Somalia, Yemen*, Sudan (Hopper has no flight data for Yemen). Skipped countries are Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Qatar, UAE, Azerbaijan (those that might have been more appropriately on the list given the prior terrorists from these countries).  Note that it looks like we lost about 10 Mio travellers/week from all other countries too  (61 Mio versus 51 Mio, bottom line of the above table).

Now this can’t be good for tourism and related industries!  Not even for Trump hotels and golf courses.   Note that travellers from “friendly” countries like Ireland, Denmark, New Zealand are down 31-32% and travellers from the richest country in the world, tiny Qatar are down 26%.

It is interesting that a few countries have seen an uptick in interest of visiting the US.  At the top of the list is, guess who, Russia.  The change since inauguration is 88% up:  387,581 in the week prior to inauguration and 729,860 in the latest week since the travel ban.

Who are these Russians flooding in to our country?  Are they all hackers? http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/09/01/russia-cold-war-panama-papers-podesta-clinton-hack-servers-glenn-reynolds/89657192/

Are they Spetsnaz (Russian Special Forces) troops that have previously been spotted over here?  http://www.petition2congress.com/10798/russian-troops-in-america-confirmedRussian

Or are they interested in business ventures?  Are they all buying condos? http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/12/15/donald-trump-russia-wealthy-condo-buyers/95464922/

Hopper collects, from several Global Distribution System partners, ten to fifteen billion airfare price quotes every day from searches happening all across the web.  I have assumed a more or less linear relationship between travel searches and actual travel.

Thanks to Alice Tepper Marlin for drawing my attention to this!

In a very sneaky move Senate Republicans are planning a vote at 2AM tonight to confirm Tom Price for Health and Human Services.  He is their champion of repealing Obamacare and privatizing Medicare.  He embodies “Make America Sick Again”.   Lee Zeldin, are you with us?  Or not?  And by “us” I mean everyone in CD1 who is going to suffer from the consequences of lack of affordable medical care.

Senator Ron Wyden would like this news to go viral.

https://www.facebook.com/wyden/photos/a.10150571859552858.388896.54787697857/10154535774807858/?type=3&theater

From Facebook page of Senator Ron Wyden

The Republicans are planning a vote at 2 a.m. tonight to confirm Rep. Tom Price as head of the Department of Health and Human Services. Yet, we STILL don’t have a straight answer about his pattern of introducing legislation to benefit companies that he makes investments in. And the Republicans seem to have no problem with his plan to privatize Medicare and decimate the coverage millions of Americans rely on.

Don’t let them sneak this one through. SHARE this and tell your friends to urge Senate Republicans to vote NO on Price!