Manufacturing in the US

Great OpEd Feb 28, 2017, in the Washington Post by David Ignatius

What caused the loss of manufacturing jobs in the US? As also discussed elsewhere on this blog, Ignatius lays the blame on automation.  The government will find it difficult to deal with that problem!  I mean: do we want to roll back the progress of modern times?  An interesting aspect, however, is the comparison with other industrial nations like Germany, where they seem to have less of a problem with the loss of manufacturing jobs. How did they do it?

David Ignatius writes:

…Manufacturing employment has indeed declined in America over the past decade, but the major reason is automation, not trade. Robots, not foreign workers, are taking most of the disappearing American jobs. Rather than helping displaced blue-collar workers, Trump’s promises of restoring lost jobs could leave them unprepared for the much bigger wave of automation and job loss that’s ahead.

The most persuasive numbers were gathered in 2015 by Michael J. Hicks and Srikant Devaraj at Ball State University. They showed that manufacturing has actually experienced something of a revival in the United States. Despite the Great Recession, manufacturing grew by 17.6 percent, or about 2.2 percent a year, from 2006 to 2013. That was only slightly slower than the overall economy.

But even as manufacturing output was growing, jobs were shrinking. The decade from 2000 to 2010 saw “the largest decline in manufacturing employment in U.S. history,” the Ball State economists concluded. What killed those jobs? For the most part, it wasn’t trade, but productivity gains from automation. Over the decade, the report notes, productivity gains accounted for 87.8 percent of lost manufacturing jobs, while trade was responsible for just 13.4 percent.

Robotics allows manufacturers to create more output with fewer people. That’s not a conspiracy imposed by Bannon’s global elite. It’s simply a fact of economic life and progress. And it’s not just blue-collar workers who are suffering. Smarter machines kill jobs in finance, law and, yes, even journalism.

To see how Trump is mislabeling the causes of workers’ anger, take a look at job losses in various industries. In motor-vehicle manufacturing, 85.5 percent of job losses came from productivity gains; in steel and other primary metals, 76.7 percent; in paper products, 93.2 percent; in textiles, 97.6 percent.

Trump proposes that we “buy American.” But in a world of globalized supply chains, what is an American car? Does a Toyota Camry made in Kentucky count? Is a Ford F-150 assembled in Kansas City American even if some of its parts were made in Mexico? The interdependence of global manufacturing is part of why Ford and Toyota stay healthy and profitable, for workers and shareholders both. How does Trump propose to unthread this subtly woven quilt?  …

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Blind free-market ideology can be dangerous to your health

Published in the East Hampton Star 2/23/17 by John Hooker from North Haven.  John is an expert on Health Care with a long career working with big pharma (says David P).

Blind free-market ideology can be dangerous to your health! Now that we are in the midst of revisiting our health care system, it’s worth drawing a parallel with Switzerland to illustrate how a country that revised its health care system in the ’90s is still struggling today.

Why do I select Switzerland, with a population of only 8.2 million? Because the system is private, federalist (the 26 cantons function somewhat like states), and should normally succeed: The median income of the Swiss is twice that of the United States and offers everyone topnotch health care — and the fact that Ford magazine claimed in 2011 that it was the best health care system in world.

So what is going wrong? Since the Swiss health care overhaul (the LAMAL law of 1994), the number of Swiss health care insurance companies has gone from about 100 to 59 today. That was almost a quarter of a century ago, and they still haven’t optimized their system.

Let me give you a quick illustration that happened in 2015 and was published in the Swiss press. Assura, an insurance company with a reputation for being a pioneer of low-cost premiums for basic insurance plans, saw its reserves suddenly depleted by a mammoth deficit of 253 million Swiss francs (currently the same in dollars). What happened? Their “strategy” of attracting customers with low-cost premiums suddenly backfired: New clients in 2014 grew by 20 percent but medical expenses grew by 27 percent. Almost overnight, they were in trouble.

Another insurance company the same year bought up a smaller one and went from solvency to deficit, because they couldn’t evaluate the health care status of the new clients beforehand. Well, too bad, you might say, poor management. But do market rules really apply in health care? Swiss law compels all insurance companies to offer a basic plan to everyone, which corresponds to the lowest premium rate companies offer. The basic plan is mandatory, and benefits are determined by law.

At year’s end, young, healthy individuals tend to shop around for the best deal, because insurance companies are free to charge what they want for the basic plan and, by the way, new clients cannot be refused for pre-existing conditions. Conversely, the old and sick customers tend to stay put, out of fear of losing add-on benefits they contracted for previously with their current company. The result is that competition among insurance companies tends to breed insolvency, because the basic plan — if underpriced to lure new clients — can drain resources suddenly and unexpectedly. How can anyone claim free-market competition when the buyer and the client are in the dark?

Back to the U.S. Since 2009, the media have blared the need for young, healthy individuals to join the exchanges of the Affordable Care Act so as to compensate for less healthy and older individuals to be included in the same insurance pool. As we embark on the repeal, or the replacement, or A.C.A. repair, it is important to note that free-market ideology is at loggerheads with the profit incentive that makes free-market competition work efficiently, at least in the case of health care insurance companies.

Joe Biden recently said on “60 Minutes” that Democrats consider health care a right, and Republicans, a privilege. Whatever one thinks, my point here is that in a system where insurance companies compete for customers who will most likely not use their products — where customers don’t know what their future needs might be and do not have a decade of medical studies to assess them; where customers know neither the cost nor the specifics, once the bills arrive, and, finally, where outcomes have no objective point of comparison — how can anyone claim that free-market capitalism can jibe with a health care market?

It’s the politics, stupid!

JOHN HOOKER

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Wolves and Bears

Published 2/23/17 in the East Hampton Star by Francesca Rheannon.

I would like to know why our ostensibly “pro-life” congressman, Lee Zeldin, voted in favor of killing wolf pups and hibernating bears in Alaska’s wildlife refuges this week.

Zeldin, voted in favor of H.J. Resolution 69, a measure that overturns a federal rule that was years in the making, written by professional wildlife managers at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to stop what the Humane Society calls “some of the most appalling practices ever imagined in the contemporary era of wildlife management.” These include, in addition to killing wolf pups and hibernating bears, spotting bears from planes and then shooting them, and trapping bears with steel-jawed leghold traps and snares.

The resolution passed with a very thin majority, so our congressman’s vote counted. Ten of his fellow Republicans had the sense to vote against it. So why in the world did Representative Zeldin cast this cruel vote? Does he think wolves and bears in the Alaskan wilderness pose a danger to his constituents on Long Island?

Unlikely. More likely is that he fell in line behind the N.R.A. and the Safari Club — the latter organization is the one behind the killing of Cecil the lion in Zimbabwe — who were pushing for passage of the resolution.

Last week I asked Congressman Zeldin’s representative why Lee Zeldin voted to defund Planned Parenthood, a move that will deprive millions of poor and working-class women access to health care. He told me that Zeldin voted to defund P.P. because he is “pro-life” (even though 97 percent of the health services P.P. provides have nothing to do with abortion).

Wolves and bears are beautiful creatures that share the planet with us. Voting to kill them is a sign of just how little Mr. Zeldin actually values life. Anyone who is truly pro-life should not vote for Lee Zeldin.

FRANCESCA RHEANNON

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The Trump/Bannon plan

Two seminal pieces were just published in the NYT.  (1) A factual description of today’s growing and aggressive ICE.  (2) An annotated and explained version of Bannon’s CPAC presentation.

These stories should be an eye opener for everyone.

Trump’s transition is far from chaotic. In fact, Executive Orders have been issued that address each and every one of Bannon’s priorities:

1) National security and sovereignty: the wall, the travel ban, revised immigration rules, pipeline, deregulation to strengthen big business; disruption of all trade agreements; legalizing the Church’s involvement in politics; nomination of a young, brilliant candidate for SCOTUS, who believes strongly in the Church’s role at the centre of national identity and law.

2) Deconstruction of the state: appointment of heads of each department that have long argued that their new departments should be defanged and in some cases eliminated; leaving some 2000+ positions vacant to allow heads of departments (Secretaries) room to eliminate positions and shrink the Federal Government.

3) Reinforcement of the power of the White House: a co-opted Congress; relentless campaign to delegitimize and sideline the free press as the sole remaining opposition of note; dissemination of propaganda “alternative facts” to justify their most outlandish policy measures and decisions; appointment of generals to key positions (National Security Adviser, Head of Homeland Security, Head of ICE, Defense Secretary) thus increasing ties between the military and the White House; strengthening of the role and expansion of ICE, border patrols, internal memos alluding to the option of  deploying the reserves to patrol the streets and enforce new laws against migrants and foreigners; laying the foundations for a massive expansion of largely outdated and unnecessary military hardware that nevertheless are symbols of strength against the marauding hordes that are waiting to swoop on this weak and hitherto fore, defenseless country.

We do indeed have the seeds of a fascist state already in place.

This makes a lot of the wooly discussion of the Democrats vaguely tangential. We need to keep the eye on the ball if one is to nip this in the bud. We now need to be highly focused and disciplined. We need to prioritize.

It certainly does not bode well for an independent Congress.  And whether SCOTUS will remain an independent branch of government remains to be seen. However, if one puts the above argument to the Republicans, some will see the light.

One way that Congress can reclaim their independence, and their constitutional role, is to investigate the Russian connection to the Trump campaign. Where there is smoke, look for the fire.  One needs to collect evidence regarding violations of the emoluments clause. One needs to examine those tax returns. These are tools for Congress to fight back and save their very existence.  Hitler dissolved the Reichstag (equivalent to the Congress) only 3 months after coming into power claiming emergency powers.

Our congressman in New York’s CD-1 is Lee Zeldin, and he is a jew.   He is young, but I am sure he has some grasp of history.  Keep reminding him that he can stand up to fascism and if he does, he will go down in the history books as having saved America. These times demand brave men and women.

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Cancer Patients in Fear of the Ultimate Death Panel

Great article in the WaPo, reminds me of my friend Liz.  She was young when she was first diagnosed with an aggressive type of lymphoma.  In 50% of cases, this type of cancer can be cured with chemotherapy.  She had lost her insurance at the time.  So she spent about $ 350,000 of her savings and was lucky to get a cure, but she was also broke!   Years later she applied for Obamacare on the exchange.  She was actually waiting for her insurance card to go back to a physician and deal with some new troubling symptoms.  The card did not come in time.  She died very suddenly without medical insurance.The new WaPo article describes other cancer patients and how they feel about losing Obamacare.  Here is some of their testimony:

Ashley Walton was 25 when a mole on her back turned out to be melanoma. She had it removed, but three years later she discovered a lump in her abdomen. She was then unemployed and uninsured, …. Every company rejected her.

By the time Walton finally sought medical help, the melanoma had spread to her brain, lungs and elsewhere. And she eventually became eligible for California’s Medicaid program, which had been expanded under the Affordable Care Act. Two major surgeries, radiation and immunotherapy did not cure the cancer — but did beat it back.

She credits her survival to the ACA. Without it, “I would likely be dead, and my family would likely be bankrupt from trying to save me,” she said. Her greatest concern is that Republican assaults on the law will imperil that coverage.

“For cancer survivors, we literally live and die by insurance,” Walton said.

“People are scared out of their minds,” said 34-year-old Erin Price-Schabert, who seven years ago was treated for breast cancer. She frets whether that history would make her “uninsurable” in the individual market if she were to leave her job.

Indeed, many people described a kind of existential dread that matches their fear of cancer.

House Republicans have called for major changes in federal subsidies, which have helped the vast majority of people with ACA policies afford their plans. They want state high-risk health insurance pools for people with big medical bills.

Herbert Malamut of Southampton, N.J., is on edge. He remembers the old insurance pools, …  “Those pools were poorly funded and had high premiums and skimpy benefits,” said Malamut, 61, who was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in 2012. “I don’t know why we would go back to them.”

“Some people will fall through the cracks,” said Larry Levitt, senior vice president at the ­Kaiser Family Foundation.

Elizabeth Alcorn, 56, and her husband say  “We are too young for Medicare.” He’s dealing with prostate cancer that just recurred after several years. “I have had good security with [the ACA],” Gerry Corridon said, “and now we don’t know how this is going to end up.”

In Thousand Oaks, Calif., the law’s bleak future is weighing heavily on 61-year-old Maryann Hammers, too. Diagnosed with ovarian cancer three years ago, the freelance writer underwent surgery and chemotherapy and often couldn’t work. The disease recurred seven months later, and now blood tests suggest that it’s back yet again.

“I know what’s coming next,” she said. “And it’s a friggin’ nightmare.”

Hammers has been covered by an ACA health plan. She’s “completely panicked” about the Republicans’ plan to repeal the law and what that could do to her coverage next year.“Without coverage, I don’t get care, and without care, I die,” she said. “So, to me, the people trying to do away with the ACA are the ultimate death panel.”

Wake up, Rep Lee Zeldin!  There are about 9000 cases of cancer (invasive malignant tumors) annually in Suffolk county. Most of these people are your constituents. They depend on you.   Without affordable health care coverage, they die!

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The #AmericanDream

apple-pie

(Pie and photo by Helen Atkinson-Barnes)

Author: Helen Atkinson-Barnes, published in this week’s Sag Harbor Express

Why are all these people protesting?  I’ve been hearing this question since the day after the election, when college students across the country, including my daughter, first flooded in to the streets.  I continue to hear this question asked – sometimes sincerely other times cynically – following more recent uprisings. Many seem bewildered or incensed, by the Women’s March, the spontaneous airport demonstrations against the immigrant ban, the uproar on social media and in the press about conflicts of interest, and the flood of visits, phone calls and letters to members of congress.

I’ve also heard those questioning the protests answer their own question by dismissing people speaking out as “senseless,” “unpatriotic,” or even as just a bunch of “whiny,
spoiled brats.”   I would reply by saying that these protests are as American as apple pie.

We who speak out are doing so in an effort to protect the principles that make this country great.  In accordance with these ideals, the protests so far have been overwhelmingly positive and peaceful.  To borrow from Martin Luther King Jr:  We have a dream.

We have a dream of a respectful nation:  that no matter who you are–no matter your color, ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation, income, religion, age, disability, or country-of-origin–we are all members of the human race.  We all have the right to be treated fairly and to be measured by our deeds and not by our identities.

We have a dream of an informed and thoughtful nation: with public education for all and a free and honest press celebrating truth and the open exchange of ideas.

We have a dream of a healthy nation: where all people are protected from disease and unsafe conditions and are able to get care when they are sick.

We have a dream of a pristine nation: with unspoiled public parks for all to visit, clean water for all to drink, pure air for all breathe, and a safe climate for all to inhabit.

We have a dream of a connected and accessible nation: with well-repaired public roads and bridges; walkways, waterways, and parks; public transportation and telecommunications.

We have a dream of a safe nation:  a place where people can live free from the fear of international terrorism and of domestic violence, of street violence and of systemic
violence.

We have a dream of an open nation:  not a country that is shut off behind walls, punitive tariffs, and immigration bans, but instead interconnected with the world to boost prosperity and peace through trade and travel.

Haven’t we all been taking this dream for granted? These values are under attack by those in our government who would trample on the truth with “alternative facts,” stir up fear and resentment or use power for personal advantage.

Civilization depends upon civic engagement, which must not end at the ballot box.  I hear too many people say, “Suck it up, it’s out of your hands now,” or “It’s just too painful to pay attention.”  I get it. But it also can be empowering to take action.  And while we need to pace ourselves, and pick our battles, at the very least we should try.

Like apple pie, protest is sweetly and deeply American.   Whether individual or collective, a conversation or a rally, written or spoken, somber or satiric, painted, sung or knit–peaceful protest is not just a right in the United States, but a responsibility that is essential to the preservation and defense of democracy and our shared American Dream.

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“Prejudice, hatred, and racism”

“None of us can say or do enough until terror, anti-Semitism, prejudice, hatred, and racism is eliminated in every form.” — Rep. Lee Zeldin. As reported by Lisa Finn (Patch Staff) – February 23, 2017 10:24 am ET

Hmm? For once I agree with LZ. But, lets see some congruent actions, not just words. “Prejudice, hatred and racism” applies to all religions and all groups including Muslims and Latinos! Note that Muslims were among the first to offer help for the desecration of the Jewish Cemetery in St. Louis:

As of early Wednesday morning, a crowdfunding campaign started by Muslim activists had raised over $70,000 in an effort to help repair a vandalized Jewish cemetery near St. Louis, Missouri. “Muslim Americans stand in solidarity with the Jewish-American community to condemn this horrific act of…
We are watching, Mr. Zeldin.  Words matter to us.  And also the actions that back them up. If you want “prejudice, hatred, and racism eliminated in every form” think about the Muslim ban, think about sending 12 Mio latinos in dangers way and breaking up their families.  Would you want a Jewish ban? Would you want Jews sent back from where they came from? Would you want your own family torn apart?
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Crowd spilling over at OLA Meeting in Bridgehampton

ICE in the Hamptons – already (according to unconfirmed reports)

Great event last night Tuesday, February 21, 2017. Organized by  OLA of Eastern Long Island, at Queen of the Most Holy Rosary Church in Bridgehampton.

Check this picture out! About 700-1000 people crammed into the church.  Still looking for more photos that show the crowd, with people sitting on the ground in all the isles and the crowd spilling out the front door in front of the church!  The attached video is from a fixed camera showing only the podium. It is over 2 hours long, but full of information regarding the expected upcoming ICE raids.  I’m told ICE was already on North Main Street in East Hampton yesterday!

Watch the full video here.  This Facebook video has had 10,373 views as off early this morning!

Be in touch with OLA of Eastern Long Island Minerva Perez

Experts that spoke were
Jose Perez, Latino Justice
Walter Barrientos, Make the Road New York
Cheryl Keshner, 631.650.2317 Empire Justice
Francis Madi, 212.627.2227 New York Immigration Coalition 

Christopher Worth 631.676.4999 Christopher Worth, Immigration Attorney

Legal Hotline: 800.566.7636
Immigration Defense Project: 212.725.6422

Private questions: please email (olaexecdir@gmail.com) or send in private facebook message to OLA.  It’s in Spanish on OLA’s FB page.

More here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/letsvisitleezeldin

and here: https://www.facebook.com/search/top/?q=ola%20of%20eastern%20long%20island

and here: http://sagharborexpress.com/60696-2/

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Muzzling Warren Backfires on McConnel

As per Newsday:

http://cdn.newsday.com/polopoly_fs/1.13081364.1486652247!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/display_600/image.jpg

warren

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) reacts to being rebuked by the Senate leadership and accused of impugning a fellow senator, Attorney General-designate, Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), Wednesday, Feb. 8, 2017, on Capitol Hill in Washington. Warren was barred from saying anything more on the Senate floor about Sessions after she quoted from an old letter written by Coretta Scott King about Sessions.

The editorial “Muzzling Warren rightly backfires on McConnell” [Feb. 9] reminded all of us that we should not sit down and be silenced.

I understand the need for decorum and rules in the U.S. Senate, but prohibiting a respected senator from reading a letter from the wife of one of the most prominent civil rights leaders in America is unacceptable.

Steven A. Ludsin, East Hampton, NY

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Zeldin & Environment?

My letter to editor of LI Advance was published this week- 2/16/2017

Voting to loosen standards on oil and gas industries

Where is Congressman Zeldin on the environment?
Two weeks ago I visited Congressman Zeldin’s office to talk with a staff member about my concerns.  He assured me that Congressman Zeldin has a great record on the environment.  I could rest easy that he was protecting our coastlines as best he could from rising sea levels. Within a week of that meeting he voted with the Republican majority to block standards that protect us from dangerous climate pollution from the oil and gas industry on public lands.  Yes those public lands are far away but those emissions add to global warming and therefore to our rising sea levels.

So where is Congressman Zeldin on the environment?  I believe he needs to do more that just vote on our immediate environmental concerns on Long Island.  He needs to look at the bigger picture and the future.  He can’t have a “great record” on the environment and vote to weaken federal standards on clean water and air.

Jane Tierney

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