Why is COVID-19 Testing Important?

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Earlier today, March 28, 2020 and According to News 12

Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone says 4,138 people in the county have tested positive for coronavirus.

Bellone also says 409 people are hospitalized due to coronavirus, with 139 in the ICU.   “There are 2,644 hospital beds, with 570 available. There are also 309 ICU beds, with 78 available.” Clearly, we will soon run out of necessary beds and of course ventilators.

Bellone says there are 30 deaths in the county due to coronavirus.

7 deaths have occurred in the retirement home Peconic Landing

At Peconic Landing, the Greenport retirement home, there was another death today, the seventh.  There are about 40 people known to have tested positive.  Peconic Landing has perhaps 377 staff, and well over 300 residents (301 independent “members” and 86 nursing home patients).  Peconic Landing is the hotbed of COVID-19 in Suffolk county.  Think of it as a “Cruiseship”.  And it is full of frail elderly clients.  Find the updated information regarding Peconic Landing and COVID here.

The leadership of Peconic Landing claims there are no available tests for their home.  I understand that there may be a rush on tests, but isn’t the situation at Peconic Landing a quasi emergency?  Their residents are mostly over 80 years old. If they get sick with COVID-19 one would expect a mortality rate of 10-20% at least.  For the rest of us, the mortality (risk of dying if we get the virus) is more like 1-2% .

Some say “well aren’t they going to die anyway?”   How would you feel if your parent or grandparent were there?

Why is it important to test everyone at Peconic Landing?

There are currently 2 types of testing:

  1. RT-PCR test – it detects viral RNA and therefore a component of the virus itself.  This involves a nasal swab that is sent to a lab and the turnaround is about 1-2 days currently.
  2. Antibody test: A new test for IgM and IgG antibodies (Ab), which are part of the immune system’s response to the virus.  This test takes 15 minutes and involves a pinprick of a finger, like the glucose test performed by diabetics.

Both tests should be done because the combined information might be useful:

Here are the 4 possible outcomes and what they mean.

PCR+ Ab –

you have COVID-19,  symptomatic or asymptomatic. You should take precautions (self-isolation) to avoid transmission of virus to your loved ones.  You absolutely may not have any contact with residents at a home, like Peconic Landing.

PCR+ Ab+

you are likely recovering from COVID-10 (1-3 weeks out); you may have been symptomatic or not.  Because you are still PCR+ you need to take precautions (isolation). Isolation should be for 10 days after symptom onset or for the duration of symptoms plus 3 days after resolution of symptoms.  You absolutely may not have any contact with residents at a home, like Peconic Landing.

PCR- Ab-

you never had COVID-19.  You are susceptible, and if you live or work in a high risk situation, such as Peconic Landing, you shouldn’t be there. But if that is impossible, you should take very stringent precautions.

PCR- Ab+

you are fully recovered from COVID-19.  Generally, this group could be considered “immune” and possibly

    • go back to work
    • might be well suited for caretaker and health provider roles
    • might donate plasma at a blood bank to be administered to critically ill COVID-19 patients in the ICU: this is called passive immunotherapy, used successfully for the Spanish Flu and for Ebola.

On the Diamond Princess Cruise ship, all elderly passengers and those with underlying medical conditions, and all crew were tested. Passengers who had negative [SARS-CoV-2] RT-PCR test results, no respiratory symptoms, and no close contact with a person with a confirmed case of COVID-19 completed a 14-day ship-based quarantine before disembarking.  In other words, testing helped make informed decisions to save as many lives as possible.

We should do the same for our senior friends at Peconic Landing.

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Where Were You Lee Zeldin?

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In the March 19 issue of the Western Edition of The Southampton Press, the A section is devoted to articles about the coronavirus pandemic and the impact on Suffolk County and Southampton Town. There are quotes and statements from Governor Andrew Cuomo, Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone, Southampton Town Supervisor Jay Schneiderman, mayors, school superintendents and hospital administrators. Conspicuously missing is any statement from Congressman Lee Zeldin.

On the congressman’s Facebook page and in his appearances on Fox News, from January through early March of this year, his comments included supporting President Trump against impeachment, criticizing New York for bail reform, insinuating that Democrats want to enable voting by undocumented residents, and the highlighting the danger of MS-13. But not one word about the growing epidemic.

Now that the pandemic has been declared a national emergency, his website has information for the public about the virus and his office has issued a series of press releases. But we know that Congress was informed by our intelligence services in January that the novel coronavirus that began in China at the end of 2019 had the potential to be a global pandemic. China released the genetic code for the virus at the beginning of January to help scientists in other countries prepare test kits and institute procedures to contain the virus. We did neither.

Instead, President Trump called it a Democratic hoax, Fox News repeated this misinformation campaign, and Zeldin focused on spreading lies about bail reform. Countries like Australia and South Korea that immediately implemented policies to test and contain the virus are in far better shape today.

No resident of the district should be surprised. Zeldin has not stood with protecting the public health of his constituents at any time in his tenure in Congress. He voted repeatedly to repeal the Affordable Care Act, voted for the GOP deficient replacement bill in 2017, and lied about that vote in the 2018 midterm election, pretending he supported protections for pre-existing conditions.

The constituents of the 1st District are now facing a grave danger to both the public health and economic health of our district. Our hospitals in Suffolk County are facing overwhelming numbers of emergencies. And our shuttered businesses and their employees are facing ruin.

We, the taxpayers of this district have the right to know why we are on a COVID-19 case accrual curve closer to Italy than to South Korea. Where was Congressman Zeldin when this threat was building? Why was he busy spouting right-wing talking points and propping up a president who was calling this a hoax rather than raising the alarm about the threat to our district and getting us the necessary resources?

We need answers.

By Barbara Weber-Floyd

Westhampton Beach

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How to Handle Food and Groceries Coming in to Your Home

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Watch a doctor demonstrate how to safely bring groceries home during the coronavirus crisis.  This is very useful!  Specially the latter half starting at 5:00 min.

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#StaytheFuckHome

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Message from Dr. Norbert Goldfield (Ask Nurses and Doctors):

Dear Colleagues and Friends:

From the editorial board of the Washington Post: Trump is spreading false hope for a virus cure — and that’s not the only damage.

A man thought aquarium cleaner with the same name as the drug chloroquine (Plaquenil) would prevent coronavirus. It killed him.

To add insult to injury, and not surprisingly, the Trump team failed to follow NSC’s pandemic playbook.

And there are innumerable vacancies in addition to incompetent leadership in the executive branch.

A symptom of the above challenges: The daughter of one of my hospitalized Covid patients just called me and told me that many at her mother’s housing complex are coming down with the same symptoms.  There is no case tracking here like in S. Korea – so there is nothing to be done.

My efforts to move Republican governors to early on support ‘shelter in place‘ didn’t work. As expected Florida and Texas are rapidly emerging as new potential epicenters.

I continue to organize in swing states and continue to organize roundtables for incumbent members of Congress. All suggestions welcome.

It seems like eons ago when I sent out the following advice: #StaytheFuckHome. Please stay healthy.

Let’s end with some good news. My retired physician colleague who was on a respirator for Covid has just been extubated!

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The Way Forward: Testing for Antibodies to Coronavirus

If we only knew who had developed immunity to the virus.  Immunity may occur in someone who had the virus (either with symptoms or without), got better and developed IgM and IgG antibodies.  We know that happens.  If you are declared immune, you can safely go back to work which might help the economy.  You are safe as a healthcare worker.  You are safe to go buy groceries. You are safe to be around your loved ones.  You could donate plasma at the local Blood center and plasma with lots of antibodies could be administered to patients dying in the ICU (passive immunotherapy used previously against the Spanish flu and against Ebola for example).

There are some promising reports regarding testing for the presence of antibodies to the COVID-19 virus:

  1. The NYT reports “U.S. Companies, Labs Rush to Produce Blood Test for Coronavirus Immunity”
  2. In the UK they are ready to release home immunity tests as reported in the Wall Street Journal.  Even Boris Johnson is getting into this!

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This is ultimately more important than the RT-PCR diagnostic test performed with throat or nasal swabs. This virus has only existed since Dec 2019.  Anyone who has the antibodies was infected since that date.  I assume they are making sure that the antibodies don’t react with previously known Coronaviruses (SARS and MERS).  This will give us great information on what the actual number of infected persons has been.  It will tell us what percentage of the population has not yet been infected and is still susceptible to the virus.  This percentage will be dwindling as the pandemic progresses and the virus runs out of people to infect.  For those that still don’t have antibodies, we might want to think about not having them around susceptible populations, as in a nursing home.  This is an opportunity.  Let’s not bungle it again.  Everyone should get tested!

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COVID-19 in Suffolk County

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Patch.com just published the latest local figures for Suffolk County as of yesterday and they were obtained from the official  county site here:

conf. cases deaths population 2017 cases per 1000 people *
Islip: 395 333700 1.183697932
Huntington: 358 203276 1.761152325
Brookhaven: 281 486170 0.577987124
Babylon: 271 213,603 1.268708773
Smithtown: 120 117390 1.02223358
Southold: 107 22284 4.801651409
Riverhead: 39 33781 1.15449513
Southampton: 33 58439 0.564691388
East Hampton: 13 32000 0.40625
Shelter Island: 2 2421 0.826104915
other towns 261
total County 1880 18 1503064 1.25077841
at Peconic Landing 6

* some have proposed multiplying this number by 100 because most people are not getting tested (even those with symptoms).

Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone reported 1,880 confirmed cases countywide which is a jump of 422 from the day before. Of that number, 163 are hospitalized, with 50 in intensive care.

Southold is particularly hard hit.  The Peconic Landing retirement community in Greenport has reported a sixth death related to coronavirus.

Ventilators in Suffolk County

With the desperate need for ventilators , Bellone said 25 are headed to Suffolk County. While numbers were not known for how many are available countywide, Bellone said that number is “woefully inadequate for what that need will be.”

Personal Note (regarding testing)

Contrary to the incredible efficiency of the South Koreans in testing everyone and containing the virus, see this NYT article,  we are still struggling.  For instance, after a few attempts, costing me hours on the phone to get thru to the county health officials, I finally got them to agree to test me (I have a bad cough and fever). This was finally done 2 days ago, but the test result (Quest Labs) is not expected for one week.  There are also no plans to have the 6 others staying in our house tested even though one of them also has symptoms!  We have been under self-quarantine for weeks now.  But some kind of public enforcement should occur. Even if it is just phone calls to follow up on our progress, from the health department.  I highly recommend reading about how South Korea has flattened the curve.

Considering that this is the richest nation on earth, with supposedly the most advanced healthcare, we deserve an ‘F’. It is too late to change the course of COVID-19 in the US I fear.  But in the meantime, we should all consider volunteering.  There are many opportunities and there will be more.

I called the county to volunteer as a retired MD.  I may perhaps be Corona virus-positive right now, but when I recover and come out of self-quarantine, I could not be safer, knowing that I will have acquired disease-fighting antibodies.  Those of us that have recovered and those that test positive for the presence of antibodies will be ideally suited to help care for the sick and critical patients.

Gov. Cuomo has announced that he wants retired health care professionals to be recruited. Suffolk county is just starting an effort along these lines.  I contacted Suffolk County Medical Reserve Corp.  Here is their response:

Thank you for contacting us. Volunteer opportunities exist within the Suffolk County Medical Reserve Corp.   Please visit this site for more information and to join through the NYS HCS:

https://suffolkcountyny.gov/Departments/FRES/Office-of-Emergency-Management/Medical-Reserve-Corps

From that point you will be contacted for an assignment.

Jennie Nedell , Volunteer Programs Coordinator 

Jennie.Nedell@suffolkcountyny.gov

631-852-4853

I will warn you about the sign-up process which puts you into NY.gov.  It is cumbersome but I will gladly help you with it!

I urge you to sign up now.  Jennie is very friendly and willing to help.  They have possible jobs for all of us and much can be done from home (where you might be under self-isolation), electronically or by phone, etc.  If you are elderly, or no longer registered as a health care professional or can’t travel around the county, don’t worry, they have jobs for you!

It will get crazy in 1-3 weeks when the system is overrun.  Now is the time to sign up to volunteer.

David

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Immune Response in COVID-19 Leading to Disease Resolution

This is a fascinating little paper in the medical journal Nature Medicine.  It is written by an Australian group arguably the top leaders in the field of antiviral immune responses.

It describes a 47-year-old woman from Wuhan, Hubei province, China. She presented to an emergency department in Melbourne, Australia. Her symptoms commenced 4d earlier with lethargy, sore throat, dry cough, pleuritic chest pain, mild dyspnea and fevers. She had traveled from Wuhan to Australia 11 days earlier. She had no known contacts with COVID-19 cases and was otherwise healthy.

She had a fever of 38.5 °C, and pneumonia by clinical exam and chest XR. PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 were first positive at 4d (4 d after symptoms onset). But PCR tests were no longer positiive after d7. She recovered and was discharged on d11.

There follows a detailed description of her immune response.  It involved all components of the immune system known to partake in responses to other viruses like the flu.

Why is this important?

  1. It defines a normal immune response leading to disease resolution
  2. it will be compared with the immune response of patients that don’t do well or succumb to COVID-19.  This will lead to insights about why they do poorly.
  3. antibodies and various types of T cells all seem to be important
  4. unlike H7N9 influenza disease, where inflammatory cytokines are elevated, minimal pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines were found in this patient
  5. robust and broad immune responses can be elicited to the newly emerged virus SARS-CoV-2, similar to the avian H7N9 disease and suggest that early immune responses might correlate with better clinical outcomes.
  6. NB in this patient testing by PCR was negative after D7 (many patients are not tested that early and results would therefore be falsely negative)
  7. I think patients doing poorly on ventilators in the ICU, should  get trials of plasma from recovered patients as this would provide antibodies.  This is an old type of therapy first used for Spanish Flu patients with some success.  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4781783/
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Magic Wand Needed!

If it were possible to wave a magic wand and make all Americans freeze in place for 14 days while sitting six feet apart, epidemiologists say, the whole epidemic would sputter to a halt!

Here is another coronavirus curve (from March 22nd).  The Germans claim it shows flattening of the curve for their country.  I’ not so sure (yellow curve)!  The more dramatic finding is the black curve (USA) which has the steepest incline showing that COVID-19 is spreading most aggressively here in the US than anywhere else.

My friend James, is vacationing in Mexico.  Guess what, he is going to stay there for now! Good decision.

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Why is this worrisome? The NYT ran his piece:  “The Virus can be Stopped, but only with Harsh Steps” By

…coronavirus more often infects clusters of family members, friends and work colleagues, said Dr. David L. Heymann,

“You need to identify and stop discrete outbreaks, and then do rigorous contact tracing.”

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But doing so takes intelligent, rapidly adaptive work by health officials, and near-total cooperation from the populace.   My thoughts: Right.  Is that going to happen?

Americans must be persuaded to stay home, the experts said, and a system put in place to isolate the infected and care for them outside the home. Travel restrictions should be extended, they said; productions of masks and ventilators must be accelerated, and testing problems must be resolved.

It is not the “American way”.  “The American way is to look for better outcomes through a voluntary system,” said Dr. Luciana Borio, who was director of medical and biodefense preparedness for the National Security Council before it was disbanded in 2018.

Many experts, some of whom are international civil servants, declined to speak on the record for fear of offending the president. But they were united in the opinion that politicians must step aside and let scientists both lead the effort to contain the virus and explain to Americans what must be done.  My thoughts: is that going to happen? No.  Americans distrust science.

The next priority, experts said, is extreme social distancing. If it were possible to wave a magic wand and make all Americans freeze in place for 14 days while sitting six feet apart, epidemiologists say, the whole epidemic would sputter to a halt.

…the police may be needed to enforce stay-at-home orders, as they were in China and Italy.

People in lockdown adapt. In Wuhan, apartment complexes submit group orders for food, medicine, diapers and other essentials. Shipments are assembled at grocery warehouses or government pantries and dropped off. In Italy, trapped neighbors serenade one another!  Watch this Youtube video on life in Wuhan.

It’s an intimidating picture. But the weaker the freeze, the more people die in overburdened hospitals — and the longer it ultimately takes for the economy to restart.

So, here is the Trump response delivered by tweet last night”

“Mr. Trump has become frustrated with Dr. Fauci’s blunt approach at the briefing lectern, which often contradicts things the president has just said, according to two people familiar with the dynamic.”

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“WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF,” Mr. Trump tweeted in all capital letters shortly before midnight. “AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!”

It seems clear, Donald is taking charge as the ultimate expert for anything.  Some think Dr. Fauci will be sidelined.

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But doing so takes intelligent, rapidly adaptive work by health officials, and near-total cooperation from the populace.

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 But doing so takes intelligent, rapidly adaptive work by health officials, and near-total cooperation from the populace.

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Dire Report from Epicenter Bergamo

Screen Shot 2020-03-22 at 5.19.47 PMClick and watch this disturbing video from a Bergamo hospital

A new report published by the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM; arguably the top medical journal in the world) makes the point that hospitals are major sites of corona-virus transmission and home care (community-centered care) would be a better model.  It is also a dramatic plea for help.

At the Epicenter of the Covid-19 Pandemic and Humanitarian Crises in Italy: Changing Perspectives on Preparation and Mitigation.

March 21, 2020.

Mirco Nacoti, MD,, Andrea Ciocca, MEng, Angelo Giupponi, MD, Pietro Brambillasca, MD, Federico Lussana, MD, Michele Pisano, MD, Giuseppe Goisis, PhD, Daniele Bonacina, MD, Francesco Fazzi, MD, Richard Naspro, MD, et al.

In a Bergamo hospital deeply strained by the Covid-19 pandemic, exhausted clinicians reflect on how to prepare for the next outbreak.

Summary

In a pandemic, patient-centered care is inadequate and must be replaced by community-centered care. Solutions for Covid-19 are required for the entire population, not only for hospitals. The catastrophe unfolding in wealthy Lombardy could happen anywhere. Clinicians at a hospital at the epicenter call for a long-term plan for the next pandemic.

We work at the Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital in Bergamo, a brand-new state-of-the-art facility with 48 intensive-care beds. Despite being a relatively small city, this is the epicenter of the Italian epidemic, listing 4,305 cases at this moment — more than Milan or anywhere else in the country (Figure 1). Lombardy is one of the richest and most densely populated regions in Europe and is now the most severely affected one. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported 74,346 laboratory-confirmed cases in Europe on March 18 — 35,713 of them in Italy.

Figure 1 .

Figure 1

Our own hospital is highly contaminated, and we are far beyond the tipping point: 300 beds out of 900 are occupied by Covid-19 patients. Fully 70% of ICU beds in our hospital are reserved for critically ill Covid-19 patients with a reasonable chance to survive. The situation here is dismal as we operate well below our normal standard of care. Wait times for an intensive care bed are hours long. Older patients are not being resuscitated and die alone without appropriate palliative care, while the family is notified over the phone, often by a well-intentioned, exhausted, and emotionally depleted physician with no prior contact.

But the situation in the surrounding area is even worse. Most hospitals are overcrowded, nearing collapse while medications, mechanical ventilators, oxygen, and personal protective equipment are not available. Patients lay on floor mattresses. The health care system struggles to deliver regular services — even pregnancy care and child delivery — while cemeteries are overwhelmed, which will create another public health problem. In hospitals, health care workers and ancillary staff are alone, trying to keep the system operational. Outside the hospitals, communities are neglected, vaccination programs are on standby, and the situation in prisons is becoming explosive with no social distancing. We have been in quarantine since March 10. Unfortunately, the outside world seems unaware that in Bergamo, this outbreak is out of control.

Western health care systems have been built around the concept of patient-centered care, but an epidemic requires a change of perspective toward a concept of community-centered care. What we are painfully learning is that we need experts in public health and epidemics, yet this has not been the focus of decision makers at the national, regional, and hospital levels. We lack expertise on epidemic conditions, guiding us to adopt special measures to reduce epidemiologically negative behaviors.

For example, we are learning that hospitals might be the main Covid-19 carriers, as they are rapidly populated by infected patients, facilitating transmission to uninfected patients. Patients are transported by our regional system,1 which also contributes to spreading the disease as its ambulances and personnel rapidly become vectors. Health workers are asymptomatic carriers or sick without surveillance; some might die, including young people, which increases the stress of those on the front line.

This disaster could be averted only by massive deployment of outreach services. Pandemic solutionsare required for the entire population, not only for hospitals. Home care and mobile clinics avoid unnecessary movements and release pressure from hospitals.2 Early oxygen therapy, pulse oximeters, and nutrition can be delivered to the homes of mildly ill and convalescent patients, setting up a broad surveillance system with adequate isolation and leveraging innovative telemedicine instruments. This approach would limit hospitalization to a focused target of disease severity, thereby decreasing contagion, protecting patients and health care workers, and minimizing consumption of protective equipment. In hospitals, protection of medical personnel should be prioritized. No compromise should be made on protocols; equipment must be available. Measures to prevent infection must be implemented massively, in all locations and including vehicles. We need dedicated Covid-19 hospital pavilions and operators, separated from virus-free areas.

This outbreak is more than an intensive care phenomenon, rather it is a public health and humanitarian crisis.3 It requires social scientists, epidemiologists, experts in logistics, psychologists, and social workers. We urgently need humanitarian agencies who recognize the importance of local engagement. WHO has declared deep concern about the spread and severity of the pandemic and about the alarming levels of inaction. However, bold measures are needed to slow down the infection. Lockdown is paramount: social distancing reduced transmission by about 60% in China. But a further peak will likely occur when restrictive measures are relaxed to avoid major economic impact.4 We strongly need a shared point of reference to understand and fight this outbreak. We need a long-term plan for the next pandemic.

Coronavirus is the Ebola of the rich and requires a coordinated transnational effort. It is not particularly lethal, but it is very contagious. The more medicalized and centralized the society, the more widespread the virus. This catastrophe unfolding in wealthy Lombardy could happen anywhere.

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South Korea: Aggressive COVID-19 Strategies

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S. Korea is one of the few countries that have “flattened the curve”.  How did they do it?

 

South Korea learned its successful Covid-19 strategy from a previous coronavirus outbreak: MERS

By HyunJung Kim, March 20, 2020

This is a fascinating story.  Here is an excerpt:

Korea’s response to Covid-19 is highlighting a strong public health approach to reigning in the outbreak, one that provides a lesson for the rest of the world. For the country’s health officials, however, it’s a lesson they learned the hard way. Korea’s traumatic experience with a 2015 outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS, paved the way for many of the successful strategies the government is deploying this time around.  Read more about the MERS experience here.

 

After news of the coronavirus outbreak began to emerge from Wuhan, China, earlier this year, the Korean government activated a 24/7 emergency response system to screen all travelers entering the country from that city. A woman was stopped at Incheon Airport en route for Japan at a fever monitoring station and transferred to a hospital where she was quarantined for 14 days. The Covid-19 diagnosis was confirmed on January 20. As it happens, that’s the same day the first US case was reported.

Since the first cases were confirmed, Korean public health authorities and local governments collaborated to precisely document the movement of infected people down to the minute. Authorities sought testimony, watched closed-circuit television, investigated smartphone GPS data and more, publicizing the so-called moving histories of Covid-19 patients. All local governments share information through websites, text messages, and media. Companies have developed apps that allow users to visualize the information. Koreans can now learn where infected people went, when they were there, and how they got there. If someone learns they might have been exposed, they can quickly visit a doctor and begin self-quarantine if they have similar symptoms.

On February 4, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention took advantage of the post-MERS reform and authorized an unlicensed Covid-19 test; the government went on to test an extraordinary number of people. By February 26, Korea had tested 46,127 cases, while by that point, Japan had tested just 1,846 cases and the United States only 426.

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